Ibiciro bya Gazi byazamutseho 50% ku Isi: Ingaruka n’Icyo U Rwanda Rukwiriye Kwitegura
Ibiciro bya gazi ku rwego mpuzamahanga byazamutseho hafi 50%, bitewe n’ihungabana rikomeye ryatewe n’intambara iri hagati ya United States na Iran.
Iyi ntambara yatumye habaho impungenge zikomeye ku isoko ry’ingufu, cyane cyane mu karere ka Middle East gasanzwe gatanga igice kinini cy’amavuta na gazi ku isi.
Impamvu zatumye ibiciro bizamuka
1. Ihungabana mu nzira z’ubwikorezi bw’ingufu
Imwe mu nzira z’ingenzi zinyuzwamo amavuta na gazi ni Strait of Hormuz, inyuramo hafi kimwe cya kane cy’ingufu zicuruzwa ku isi.
Iyo habaye umutekano muke muri aka gace, abacuruzi bahita bagabanya kohereza ibicuruzwa cyangwa bakazamura ibiciro kubera ubwoba bwo kubura supply.
2. Guhagarara kw’ibikorwa remezo bya LNG
Ibikorwa remezo byo gutunganya no kohereza LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) mu karere ka Gulf byahuye n’ingaruka z’iyi ntambara.
Gufungwa by’igihe gito cyangwa kugabanya umusaruro byatumye amasoko, cyane cyane ayo mu Burayi no muri Aziya, atangira guhura n’ibura rya gazi.
3. Ubwoba bw’abashoramari
Isoko ry’ingufu rikora cyane hashingiwe ku cyizere. Iyo hari intambara ishobora gukwira mu karere gatanga ingufu nyinshi, abashoramari bahita bazamura ibiciro bitewe n’icyo bita “risk premium” — amafaranga y’inyongera yishyurwa kubera impungenge z’ihungabana.
Izamuka rya 50% ry’ibiciro bya gazi rishobora:
Kuzamura ibiciro by’amashanyarazi mu bihugu bishingira kuri gazi
Gutuma ibiciro bya lisansi na mazutu bizamuka
Kongera igipimo cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro (inflation)
Guhungabanya inganda zikoresha ingufu nyinshi
Ibihugu byo mu Burayi no muri Aziya ni byo byahise byibasirwa cyane, kuko byinshi muri byo bitumiza gazi iva mu karere ka Middle East.
U Rwanda ruhagaze he?
Nubwo u Rwanda rutumiza gazi n’ibikomoka kuri peteroli binyura ku masoko mpuzamahanga, ingaruka ziza mu buryo buziguye:
Ibiciro bya lisansi na mazutu bishobora kuzamuka
Igiciro cya gaz yo guteka (LPG) gishobora kwiyongera
Ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa ku isoko bikazamuka bitewe n’izamuka rya transport
Ariko kandi, u Rwanda rukomeje gushyira imbaraga mu kongera ingufu zisubira (nk’amashanyarazi akomoka ku mazi, izuba na methane yo mu Kiyaga cya Kivu), bishobora kugabanya ingaruka z’ihindagurika ry’isoko mpuzamahanga.
Ese ejo hazaza hameze gute?
Abasesenguzi bemeza ko niba umutekano utagarutse vuba mu karere ka Middle East, ibiciro bishobora gukomeza kuguma hejuru.
Ariko niba ibiganiro bya dipolomasi byongera gutangira hagati ya United States na Iran, isoko rishobora kongera gutuza buhoro buhoro.
Izamuka rya 50% ry’ibiciro bya gazi ku isi ni ikimenyetso cy’uko isoko ry’ingufu rishingiye cyane ku mutekano wa politiki mpuzamahanga. Nubwo intambara iba kure, ingaruka zayo zigera no ku bihugu bito nk’u Rwanda binyuze mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko, U Rwanda rukwiye gukomeza gushora imari mu ngufu z’imbere mu gihugu no kugabanya kwishingikiriza cyane ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa hanze, mu rwego rwo kwirinda ihungabana nk’iri mu gihe kiri imbere.
